Yield curve & equity bear market: inversion or just flattening?

I'd like to point out two peculiar feature of this bubble never seen before:
- it's crazy magnitude
- the fact that it involves both equity and bond (and everything else...)
Therefore "this time could really be different". I mean that:
- long bonds cannot be a safe heaven, as in the past cycles at this stage, since rates are really, really too low to price in any risk premium for long term inflation (mind the Trump's termination of globalization...).Indeed, it's a mega bubble itself that can not get bigger anymore!
-investor could instead find safe heaven in the 1/2Y T bill, really attractive at current 2,2% yield with no risk (compared to a -0,6% of the German one). Moreover, non US investors will benefit from an extremely cheap greenback.

This scenario could lead to a curve translating upward and further flattening but without a proper inversion.
To sum up, I'd say that this time we don't need a curve inversion to signal an equity bear market. But don't worry...the recession will then follow, as a natural outcome of the bear market itself...(remember: we are in a 100% "financial" economy).

What if the stock's peak were already behind us?

Chart by Jesse Colombo